Defense, Support, and Punishment: Deterring Cyberwarfare in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

NATO's deterrence force is facing historical tests in both kinetic and digital domains. The war in Ukraine has brought what is known as 'hybrid warfare' to the forefront and coincided with a steady rise in cyber operations targeting NATO members and their allies. Attacks against civilians and critical infrastructure have also increased, despite growing global consensus that such attacks violate international humanitarian law. At the same time, the increased use of artificial intelligence is enhancing both cyberattacks and cyber deterrence, with the potential to change the future of hybrid warfare. As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary, this brief highlights the opportunities to develop and implement effective deterrence strategies that take into account AI's role and prepare for it. By focusing on the most destructive cyberattacks, this analysis identifies critical deterrence gaps and provides cross-sector recommendations to strengthen deterrence.